I wonder how the members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts
It must be hard to be a voting member of the AMPAS. Not just because you have to pick five actors or actresses or movies you especially liked out of the scores-maybe hundreds-you saw during a given year, but because you have to make it relevant. People who vote on and give out awards on anything are going to be questioned and criticized for their decisions, but movies are a special thing. Most people go to movies for entertainment. They want to get away. And that’s never truer then in an age when unemployment is up, violent crime is up, our political system is in shambles, our economy is trending downward, and gas prices and taxes are up. People want to be entertained. Thus, they’re not always up for the most dramatic, artistic, creative movies made. And everyone has their own favorite movie and actor and actress. The difference between the average person’s taste in movies and the members of the prestigious Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has always been significant, but it’s never been more so when movies are both fighting the cynicism and know-it-all attitude of the modern age, but also when movies are less perceived as an art or a treat, and more seen as just another thing. Just another alternative for entertainment, along with the Internet and TV and video games and music and iPods and blogs and short Youtube videos, et cetera. Heck, a lot of people view movies illegally online these days, or otherwise acquire them without paying, so there’s even less consideration that they’re some kind of art. Now, people in general like movies too much to just stop caring or stop wanting to see movies, but most of them don’t give a fart about what is considered the best or the favorite of a group of movie critics and studio bosses and other people who wear suits and ties and make six figures just being involved in the ‘business’ of movies. And they really don’t give a fart enough to watch the presentation of these “prestigious”, “proud tradition”, “honorable” awards in a four-hour TV awards show that is already kind of boring to watch even without frequent commercial breaks. Not when they can watch their favorite episodes of a sit com or TV drama online without commercials.
And, of course, the common man’s taste in movies (and in most cases, the common man’s taste in movies equals his taste in entertainment) tends to differ from someone who treats movies as a business or an art or some combination of the two. For instance, the three most-seen movies of 2012—The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, and The Hunger Games—combined for zero Oscar nominations. Zero. None. Diddly. The new James Bond movie, Skyfall, which has set the new box-office high-water mark for the 50-year-old franchise? One, for its song. The new Hobbit movie some people waited nine years to see after the conclusion of the Lord of the Rings franchise? Only a few minor nominations, for makeup and art direction. It has happened where the most popular, lucrative movie around in a given year also happened to be something of real note, something of quality the Academy appreciated (Titanic, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Rocky, Forrest Gump, Braveheart), but these tend to be the exception to the rule. The Oscar acting nominations usually feature a few well-known names but the movies are usually foreign-made or small-budget, limited-release features the average person never even heard of, let alone saw. So interest wanes.
Anyway, I’m just curious how it works for members of The Academy, because while I knew from advance buzz and preliminary awards’ shows and prediction blogs and critics’ choice groups who the people were going to be, the announced nominations still managed to surprise and disappoint me (like no love for The Hobbit). But having seen a lot of the movies and just being interested in this biggest of movie awards shows, I have to say a few words about the major categories.
BEST PICTURE
The nominees: Amour, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty
- None of these surprised me, as they were all predicted. I didn’t see the foreign-made Amour or Beasts, and I didn’t seen Django because I’m not a big fan of director/writer Quentin Tarantino’s edgy/gory style, but I saw all six of the others. Les Miserables was my favorite.
The snubs: Skyfall, The Dark Knight Rises, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
- There are ten possible slots for Best Picture, but only nine nominees, even in a stacked year. I’m surprised the Academy didn’t try to earn some street cred by filling the last slot with a mainstream blockbuster like Dark Knight or Skyfall; there would have been no shame in doing so, also, considering both got excellent reviews from critics.
The Favorite?
At this point, the frontrunner has to be Lincoln, which has impeccable credentials (true American history, a legendary historical figure at its center, an inspiring story, Academy Award winners Steven Spielberg, Daniel Day-Lewis, Sally Field and Tommy Lee Jones all involved), was very well-reviewed, got great public word of mouth and became a bonafide hit ($144 million to date). It led all movies with 12 Academy Award nominations, and its grand, dramatic, heart-tugging happenings are the stuff legendary Oscar winners are made of.
Upset Potential?
Not too much. To the surprise of many, the directors of Argo, Django Unchained, Zero Dark Thirty and Les Miserables were not nominated separately (more on that later) in the Best Director category, and, apparently, cases where a film won Best Picture when its director was not at least nominated are very rare. That’s funny, because I’d otherwise have said the very well-reviewed Argo and Zero Dark Thirty were nipping at Lincoln
Could Silver Linings Playbook be a possible upset contender? It’s based on a well-received book, has made a respectable $34 million in very limited theatrical release, received nominations in all four acting categories-a rare feat-and its director, David O. Russell, got nominated in the director category ahead of the aforementioned snubs who all directed more complex movies. Silver Linings didn’t get Lincoln Lincoln
Will Win: Lincoln
Should Win: I liked Silver Linings, but not as much as I liked Argo and Les Miserables. I liked Les Mis better, but I thought Argo was a really good, really impressive movie.
Should Have Been Nominated: I want to say The Hobbit, but I really did think the well-crafted and critically-praised Skyfall would get nominated here.
BEST DIRECTOR
The nominees: Michael Haneke (Amour), Ang Lee (Life of Pi), David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook), Steven Spielberg (Lincoln), Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
- This category made idiots of pretty much everybody. I doubt there’s a single person in the world who predicted these would be the last five standing. Oh, Spielberg was always a lock, and former winner Ang Lee was pretty close, too, but all year the safe money was on The Big Three of Spielberg, Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty) and Ben Affleck (Argo), with Tom Hooper peeking through the window for Les Mis. Quentin Tarantino and his outré tastes also have always had the Academy members’ respect (if not their love), and Django has gotten his usual solid reviews. So what the heck happened? Again, I didn’t see Amour or Beasts of the Southern Wild, though I’m sure they’re good movies, and I knew Haneke was well-respected, but still….wow…
The snubs: Affleck, Bigelow, Hooper, Tarantino and Sam Mendes (Skyfall)
- Seriously, former winner Bigelow and the resurgent, very well-respected Affleck (an Oscar winner in 1997 for his original screenplay for Good Will Hunting) were LOCKS, with Hooper right behind them. I’m legitimately amazed—and a little angry. I didn’t love Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty, but I thought Tom Hooper and Ben Affleck deserved this honor. Without question.
The Favorite?
Well, this category just taught us that nobody knows anything, but Steven Spielberg is one of the all-time greats who’s won two Best Director trophies (for 1993’s Schindler’s List and 1998’s Saving Private Ryan), and Lincoln is his first legitimate hit in a while. His last few nominations came for movies (2005’s Munich Lincoln
Upset Potential?
I would have said Affleck in a heartbeat, what with Argo’s great reviews (it was Roger Ebert’s favorite film of 2012), terrific word of mouth, and unexpectedly robust box office ($110 million to date). I actually could see it happening. With him out of the picture, though, I’d say there’s scant chance for an upset unless the Academy loved Silver Linings Playbook THAT much, as I mentioned it might. If the night becomes a Silver Linings lovefest, expect David O. Russell to get swept up along with it.
Will Win: Steven Spielberg. The safe bet, and, really, who the heck is going to argue?
Should Win: Ben Affleck. Sigh. But I do know a lot of people like Michael Haneke.
Should Have Been Nominated: BEN AFFLECK! And Tom Hooper.
BEST ACTOR
The nominees: Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook), Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln), Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables), Joaquin Phoenix (The Master), Denzel Washington (Flight)
- Not at all surprised. I’m actually quite glad these are the five nominees, because I saw all five movies and therefore can adequately assess the competition (it makes me feel like I know a lot).
The snubs: John Hawkes (The Sessions), Richard Gere (Arbitrage), Jamie Foxx (Django Unchained), Anthony Hopkins (Hitchcock)
- Former nominee John Hawkes was in the conversation all the way up until Joaquin Phoenix was announced; his ouster was a legitimate surprise. Former winner Foxx got unlucky, as did Anthony Hopkins, whose one-time Big Deal movie Hitchcock ended up completely forgotten. And it must stink to be Richard Gere, who won a Golden Globe for an eventual Best Picture winner (Chicago) back in the day and yet missed out on an Oscar nod, then produced a great performance in Arbitrage in a year when Best Actor is really crowded at the top. He would have had a much better chance at being nominated last year when the category was weaker overall.
The Favorite?
Daniel Day-Lewis. That’s an easy one. The man already owns two Best Actor trophies (for 1987’s My Left Foot and 2007’s There Will Be Blood), but he’s pretty much guaranteed to win again. His third Oscar would put him in rarefied air with the likes of Meryl Streep and Jack Nicholson—only five actors have won as many as three Oscars. The man is such a darned good actor, though. Isn’t it amazing that an Irishman was able to totally put on the mystique, aura, majesty, and top hat of a true-blooded American who died back in 1865, and yet somehow hoodwinked millions of people into believing they were actually watching the man? I, for one, felt like I was watching the Abraham Lincoln, not an actor playing him. If Day-Lewis were to not win this award, it might be The biggest shock on the night. Speaking of which…
Upset Potential?
Not much. It’s like a replay of 2007, when Day-Lewis’ performance as a steely, cold-hearted oil baron sent George Clooney, Tommy Lee Jones, Viggo Mortensen and Johnny Depp packing (I still remember a red carpet interview with Clooney, nominated for Michael Clayton, who tried hard to look really happy and content while he talked about “other actors who were supposed to win” and how he was just trying to enjoy the night). It’s a little bit of a bummer, because this is a very strong group. Joaquin Phoenix is lucky the Academy gave him his third nomination even after he said, in a much-talked about October interview, that he considered the Oscars “bull****”. And then The Master went and died a really quick death at the box office. Still, his performance was good enough (in a yelling, screaming, twitching, wild-man alcoholic kind of way) that in most years he’d be a serious threat. And in another year we might be talking about Denzel Washington’s chances of joining the Three Oscars club after he scored his first nomination in 11 years playing an alcoholic, drug addled airline pilot. Popular actor Bradley Cooper scored a huge win being nominated as the overly-chatty would-be family man, but this is one award Silver Linings won’t win. And then Hugh Jackman actually made people forget he ever played Wolverine by singing his butt off and leading a terrific ensemble cast in the 2.5 hour epic musical Les Mis. But the fact remains that a really good Daniel Day-Lewis performance is simply better than a really good performance by anybody else.
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln
Should Win: I’m not saying DDL shouldn’t win, but I admit: I’d love to see Hugh Jackman take this thing home.
Should Have Been Nominated: I didn’t see The Sessions, but John Hawkes’ performance as a lonely quadriplegic was the most buzzed-about male performance not nominated this year.
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