OSCAR NOMINATION REACTIONS, PART 2

A Nine-Year Old, I Dreamed A Dream, And A Whole Host Of Winners: Thoughts on the 2012 Academy Award Nominations (Part 2)

BEST ACTRESS

The nominees: Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty), Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook), Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), Quveznhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild), Naomi Watts (The Impossible).

-          Count ‘em, folks: this year’s Best Actress nominees range in age from 9 to 85, with stops along the way at 22, 35 and 44. Both Wallis and Riva made history, as they were, respectively, the youngest-ever and oldest-ever Best Actress nominees (and nominees, period, in Riva’s case). This was actually a very competitive year where Chastain and Lawrence were the only people even in the neighborhood of “locks”, because…

The snubs: Marion Cotillard (Rust & Bone), Helen Mirren (Hitchcock), Rachel Weisz (The Deep Blue Sea)

-          You know it’s a tough year when the Academy leaves three former winners out in the cold. Again, they already have their trophies, so how angry can they be? Still, many doubted two actresses from foreign-made films would get nominated (that’s Wallis and Riva, I remind you). And Naomi Watts got really lucky that The Impossible started hitting theaters last week.

The Favorite?

Umm…I’m going to say Jennifer Lawrence, even though Jessica Chastain just beat her for the Critics’ Choice Award. In three years, Lawrence has rocketed to the top of the A-list (here is a big opportunity for the Academy to seem cool and hip by awarding someone popular and recognizable, and having a legitimate case for doing it). She got nominated for Best Actress at 20 for Winter’s Bone, making her one of the youngest Best Actress nominees ever (okay, so, we all know Quveznhane Wallis is smirking at that, but still). Then she grabbed the plumb role of the young Raven/Mystique in the X-Men reboot, which was a big hit, then she grabbed the even plumber role of the lead in the movie adaptations of the crazy-popular Hunger Games books. The first film, released this past March, was a mega hit that has, to date, won her an MTV Movie Award and a People’s Choice Award and bagged $400-plus-million domestically. Then she got rave review after rave review for her performance as a confused, lonely, “different” widow in Silver Linings Playbook. And, incredibly, she’s already had to refocus her attention because she’s been in Hawaii filming the next Hunger Games. And soon she’ll be filming the next X-Men. But for the record, she was very good in Silver Linings—she lucked into a very multifaceted role in which she got to cry, dance, yell and make a public scene, cuss people out, swoon, and, best and most amazing of all, out-argue Robert DeNiro.  

Upset Potential?

A lot, because Jessica Chastain just won the Critics’ Choice Award. And there’s no chance for an earlier comparison because, at the Golden Globes (winners announced this Sunday night), Chastain is nominated in the Drama category while Lawrence is in the Musical/Comedy group. Anyway, Chastain got great reviews in the sort of role (a CIA intel expert hunting Osama Bin Laden) that women rarely get. I wasn’t blown away by her performance in Zero Dark Thirty, but she, too, is a very well-respected and obviously-talented actress (who, by the way, has been in a ton of movies in the past few years, and got nominated just last year for her role in The Help). I can’t speak to the other nominees much because I haven’t seen those movies, but I do know that Meryl Streep upset in this category last year when her performance was the main reason her movie, The Iron Lady, was even thought about come Oscar time (kind of like Naomi Watts and The Impossible). And the Academy loves to bring on the emotion by awarding old actors who thought they’d never have a shot (like Riva; Christopher Plummer, Jessica Tandy, Alan Arkin and Helen Mirren are among the gray hairs who’ve won overdue Oscars in recent years).  Plus, Amour got great reviews, and Riva’s performance is one of the big reasons why. And that’s not to mention, the last time there was a big spoiler in this category (2007, when Marion Cotillard shocked Julie Christie and the rest of us), it was by an actress in a French-made and French-speaking film, which Amour is. Oh, and finally, I’m just going to go out on a limb and say the nomination’s the honor for the 9-year-old Wallis, no matter how cute it would be to see her on the podium.

Will Win: I really want to say Jennifer Lawrence with certainty, but I can’t. But if the award goes to someone other than her or Jessica Chastain, it would be a surprise.

Should Win: Again, I haven’t seen The Impossible, Amour, or Beasts of the Southern Wild, but I’m going to say Lawrence. She worked hard and completely stole the show in Silver Linings Playbook. (I also can’t help feeling that she’s not a super talented actress, and that Silver Linings made great use of her strengths and may be her best opportunity to win an Oscar)

Should Have Been Nominated: I don’t really have an opinion on this because I didn’t see any of the also-rans I mentioned, but Helen Mirren’s been hitting home run after home run lately, so I’m sure she was great playing Hitchcock’s wife.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The nominees: Alan Arkin (Argo), Robert DeNiro (Silver Linings Playbook), Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master), Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln), Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)

-          This was the easiest category to predict, because four of these guys have been penciled in for months, and it was who, not if, for the major players in Django Unchained. With Waltz winning that contest, we here have a category in which all five nominees are previous Oscar winners. That’s right: all five.

The snubs: Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained), Samuel L. Jackson (Django Unchained), Javier Bardem (Skyfall), Ezra Miller (The Perks of Being A Wallflower)

-          Again, it was pretty much guaranteed someone from Django Unchained was going to get nominated, given Tarantino’s penchant for creating crackling dialogue, explosive encounters and memorable personalities. Waltz’s beating the respected DiCaprio isn’t a huge surprise, but I had started to hear a lot of buzz for Jackson recently. Bardem and Miller—though I wish it were otherwise—were never more than extremely long shots.

The Favorite?

There is none. Not that I know of, anyway. Four of them were always going to be nominated, and the fifth is hardly a surprise. But there is a wide range in the importance of the performance to the respective film. Hoffman was practically a co-lead in The Master, and, from what I hear, the same is true of Waltz in Django. On the other hand, Alan Arkin probably had fifteen minutes of screen time in Argo, and Jones had two memorable but short scenes in Lincoln. DeNiro, the third-billed actor in Silver Linings, was right in the middle. So, who could it be? It’s been the longest since DeNiro won (he won his second Oscar in 1980; Jones won in ’92, Hoffman in ’05, Arkin in ’06 and Waltz in ’09), but that doesn’t mean much. I have a hard time picturing DeNiro winning, though (unless—once again—the unlikely happens and Silver Linings Playbook buzzsaws through the major categories). But I would say Philip Seymour Hoffman gave the strongest of the performances I saw. He put his knack for seeming like the smartest person in the room, his knack for looking and sounding in control, and his split-second explosive temper all side by side in a truly dynamic performance.

Upset Potential

A lot, I guess, since there’s no real favorite. We’ll probably know more after the Golden Globes, for which DeNiro did not get nominated and Waltz’s co-star DiCaprio joined the others (whoa, what if DiCaprio wins the Globe; that won’t help Oscar forecasts at all!). It’s a real tossup. But I just have to say, though I’m a fan of Tommy Lee Jones, his performance was so small on the canvas of Lincoln that I’d be a little irked if he snagged it and beat out the likes of Hoffman.

Will Win: No idea. We’ll know more after Sunday night.

Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman. Even though I wasn’t a big fan of The Master, his terrific performance reminded me what a great actor he is.

Should Have Been Nominated: I loved both Javier Bardem and Ezra Miller, who gave scene-stealing performances in Skyfall and Perks of Being A Wallflower, respectively. If it were up to me, I’d replace Arkin and Jones with these two. But it doesn't matter.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The nominees: Amy Adams (The Master), Sally Field (Lincoln), Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables), Helen Hunt (The Sessions), Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)

-          Jacki Weaver’s a big surprise; though she was nominated in this category two years ago, she didn’t get a lot of advance buzz for Silver Linings, probably because there were three other actors (Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence, Robert DeNiro) in her movie receiving more attention. Otherwise, it’s a strong and nostalgic group, with Sally Field getting her first nomination in 20-something years and Hunt getting her first since winning Best Actress in 1997. Hathaway’s been the lead buzz-getter for Les Mis. And as for Adams, well, I know she’s an Oscar favorite, having been nominated three other times, but her role was small and the most memorable thing I can remember her doing was reading a porno aloud (something even Joaquin Phoenix’s perverted alcoholic didn’t like).

The snubs: Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel), Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy)

-          While Adams, Field and Hathaway were locks and Hunt was close, Weaver’s spot was figured to be up for grabs between this pair of former winners, who got standout recognition for movies that otherwise got fairly mixed reviews.

The Favorite?

Lincoln was so popular and well-reviewed, and two-time Best Actress winner Sally Field is so well-liked, that she might have been the favorite in another year for her fiery performance as Honest Abe’s legendarily off-kilter first lady. But Anne Hathaway is the favorite here, especially since Les Mis has opened and gotten great word of mouth. While she’s pretty much only in the movie’s first half hour, her role as a poor, suffering woman who loses everything (even a tooth and the majority of her hair), is forced to serve as a prostitute for money, and then sings the emotional showstopper “I Dreamed A Dream”, has made her the clear front-runner. Her big tear-jerking one-take delivery of “Dream” is one of the movie scenes from this year that everyone is talking about.

Upset Potential?

It’s hard to say who is a bigger lock, Hathaway here or Daniel Day-Lewis for Best Actor. If the sky falls, though, could the winner be Adams, who has been nominated three times but has yet to catch a break?

Will Win: Anne Hathaway.

Should Win: I’m not going to argue. “I Dreamed A Dream” was amazing, and people have won this award on less.

Should Have Been Nominated: It would have been nice to see another beloved, former winner (Maggie Smith) nominated, but this is a solid group.