DALLAS BUYERS CLUB

Dallas Buyers Club (2013)
Grade: B

Starring: Matthew McConaughey, Jared Leto, Jennifer Garner and Steve Zahn
Premise: After being diagnosed with AIDS, a Texas hustler starts an out-of-home business selling illegal international drugs known to reduce the symptoms of HIV.

Rated R for profanity and offensive language, explicit sexual content (including graphic nudity), depictions of drug and alcohol abuse, and some blood

You Only Live Once, or "YOLO", has become an increasingly-popular expression on social media the last few years, and, while it is seldom used appropriately, its meaning is quite clear. Another popular phrase is "I only have one life to live". And then there are the lyrics to an old Bon Jovi Song, "It's My Life": it's my life/it's now or never/I ain't gonna live forever/I just wanna live while I'm alive/It's my life!! Any one of these expressions perfectly capture the spirit of Ron Woodroof, the Texas-born and bred electrician/hustler played by Matthew McConaughey in Dallas Buyers Club, a new Oscar-nominated drama that just opened wide in theaters. Woodroof--a real person--certainly could have used YOLO to explain his behavior in life, both before and after he was diagnosed with HIV/AIDS in 198. The hard-living Woodroof was a drinker, drug-user, rodeo cowboy and no stranger to threesomes, but when he got a major reality check at the hospital one day, his lifestyle changed a little, but it was still undeniably geared toward the idea that he, and everyone he knew, would Only Live Once. Director Jean-Marc Vallee's lengthy but interesting drama tells the story of one man's never-say-die attitude.

Plot
In the early '80s, little was known about AIDS except that actor Rock Hudson--a known homosexual--had died from it. Given his seemingly-unending lust for women, Ron Woodroof is certainly not a homosexual, so he's shocked when his doctors inform him he tested positive for HIV. Told he has thirty days to live, Ron wheels and deals enough to get a hospital orderly to sneak him a few jars of AZT, a new pharmaceutical drug being tested on AIDS patients. The medicine is soon being kept under lock and key, so the orderly, in lieu of giving Ron more AZT, gives him an address to a formerly-licensed doctor practicing in Mexico. Ron seeks out the doctor (Griffin Dunne) and finds that AZT, in large doses, is more harmful than helpful, but he is also given a few new drugs to take, albeit ones that are not approved by the United States' Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The drugs help Ron, who realizes he's hit the jackpot, as these unapproved drugs aren't available anywhere else in Texas.

Back in Texas, he starts making a profit, but not until he has a chance meeting with a transsexual named Rayon (Jared Leto) do things really pick up. Rayon knows all the gay bars and hot meeting spots for homosexual men around Dallas, so, partnering with him, Ron's able to sell to his needy clientele, who can't get his drugs anywhere else. Soon, their out-of-home business is called the Dallas Buyers Club, selling drugs that are mostly proteins, herbs and minerals--all less toxic than AZT, which has begun to show negative affects on patients--and Ron dodges the "don't sell illegal drugs for profit" law by selling $400-a-month memberships, wherein members can get all the drugs they want. But even with the drugs, Ron's health is fading, and he's being constantly dogged by a suspicious police officer (Steve Zahn), a kind but shrewd doctor (Jennifer Garner) and a hard-nosed FDA agent (Michael O'Neill).

What Works?
Dallas Buyers Club works mostly because of its two male leads, both of whom currently seem on the fast-track to winning Academy Awards for their performances. At the center is Matthew McConaughey, whose gaunt, junky, white-trash hustler is a world away from the dumb blonde matinee idols he played in his How to Lose A Guy in 10 Days heyday. Having lost a rumored 45 pounds to play the worn and weary Ron Woodroof, McConaughey's so skeletal he resembles a bird from the neck up, and while his role isn't particularly showy, he brings a weight that's impressive and absolutely necessary to carry the film. Ron cries, hustles, rants and gambles, drinks, and seems so hopeless he's hard to root for (he washes his first two pills of AZT down with a swig of whiskey and a snort of coke, to give you an idea of his common sense), but, thanks to McConaughey's natural charisma, he becomes endearing. After all, even though all he really wants is money, he's helping sick people, and his tenacity in researching disease and different medications--not to mention marketing to different customers and drug providers--is admirable. And it's not all seriousness--Ron's blatant homophobia is played for laughs, such as his brusque reaction to a first meeting with Rayon, and his hunch-shouldered embarrassment at selling in a gay bar (when one of his customers eyeballs him, Ron dismisses him with a blatant "**** off").

In the much-talked-about role of Rayon, Jared Leto is terrific. I was worried how I would personally respond to the sight of a man in makeup and heels and stockings for an entire movie, but Leto won me over.
The writers deserve credit--Rayon isn't the typical prissy, effeminate movie/TV gay man; instead, he's written as, essentially, the Hooker with a Heart of Gold type so many women have played throughout the years (not completely unlike Jennifer Lawrence's fussy trophy wife in American Hustle). It's that kind of role, and Leto's voice, attitude and mannerisms (not to mention drag) are so good I found myself almost believing it was a woman, stealing all those scenes with feisty flair. Leto's performance--which includes one quietly-heartbreaking scene where he don's men's clothes for an important encounter--is a home run.

What Doesn't Work?
McConaughey and Leto are great, but Dallas Buyers Club doesn't have much to recommend it other than those two headlining performances. After a decent set-up, the movie's second half becomes a slightly tiring cycle of Ron getting new drugs, Ron fooling the authorities to get the drugs into the country and sell them, people buying the drugs, Ron and Rayon bickering, and the FDA showing up to take the drugs away, so that Ron has to rant and rave and then look for more. Cutaways to Ron's doctors (Garner and Denis O'Hare) discussing the progress of the drugs on patients don't help, mainly because a number of drug names are thrown around, and they're all acronyms, which becomes a little boring. Basically, this is a just-under-two-hour movie that felt like a two-and-a-half hour one, to give you an idea of its entertainment value.

Content
I mentioned Ron's lifestyle--that should give you some idea. Buyers Club is a hard R, with lots of nudity, a few montages of people (or threesomes) hooking up, not to mention Ron and others snorting drugs and doing their share of drinking. And if you're offended by homophobic slurs, watch a different movie.

Bottom Line
Dallas Buyers Club can be a tough watch, with a long, slightly boring, running time and very rated R content; that said, it's an interesting story, and I thought Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto vindicated their continuing Oscar buzz with memorable performances.

Dallas Buyers Club (2013)
Directed by Jean-Marc Vallee
Written by Craig Borten and Melissa Wallack
Rated R
Length: 117 minutes

FRUITVALE STATION

Fruitvale Station (2013)
Grade: A-

Starring: Michael B. Jordan, Melonie Diaz and Octavia Spencer
Premise: A tragedy befalls a small-time drug dealer just as he's attempting to turn his life around.

Rated R for thematic material including language and racial slurs, intense emotional content, violence, blood, and brief sexuality

It's said we all live in our own little worlds. Fruitvale Station, a simple but shattering movie based on a real event, reminds us we all share one big one, and need to be mindful of it.

I confess I'd never heard of the New Years Day 2009 Fruitvale Station incident until I began hearing buzz about this film. It's a sad story. In the wee hours of January 1, 2009, a fight allegedly broke out on a Bay Area Railway Transit (BART) tram, causing uniformed BART police officers to stop the train at Fruitvale Station. They then pulled a handful of African-American men from the train and made them sit against a wall at the platform. According to multiple eyewitness accounts, the officers verbally abused and harrassed these young men, the events culminating when one was shot in the back while being held facedown on the concrete. The man was Oscar Grant III, a 22-year-old heading home after heading uptown for the New Year's celebration. He was unarmed. Like the recent Trayvon Martin/George Zimmerman incident, this shocking incident prompted protests against racial profiling, gun laws, and authority figures' rights and duties.

Not that Fruitvale Station is a political commentary or a documentary...other than a brief bit of cellphone footage of the incident, it's not a movie that knows any time has passed since Jan. 1, 2009. The main character is Oscar Grant (played by a wonderful Michael B. Jordan), and he is portrayed not as a martyr or the victim of a tragedy, but as a regular guy. We see him both argue and exchange sweet nothings with his tough-love girlfriend Sophina (Melonie Diaz). We see him cuddle with and dote on his young daughter, Tatiana (Ariana Neal). We see him encounter a few strangers, meet with a former drug-selling buddy, try in vain to get his grocery-store job back, and attempt to sweet-talk his levelheaded mother (Octavia Spencer). Fruitvale Station is less 'The Oscar Grant Story' than 'A Day in the Life of Oscar Grant', a day that happened to be memorable only because of the horrific way it ended.

Did this movie need to be made? Maybe not, but the Fruitvale Station incident and its young victim clearly made an impact on Ryan Coogler, who was a USC film student from the Bay Area at the time it happened. Coogler, who wrote and directed, has made a film that does two great things: first, knowing the end makes even Fruitvale's plainest moments profound and heartbreaking, because you know what lies in store for Grant's future; second, it does make clear (as was clearly the intention), Grant was just like and you and me. He wasn't a hero, a martyr, or a civil rights crusader, he was a young man--an ex-con, yes, but an everyday guy just the same--with a mom, a daughter, and a girlfriend, who tried to do the right thing and had struggled at times and even been to prison, but who almost certainly didn't deserve to spend his last conscious moments being harassed, kicked, shoved against a wall, insulted, called names and then shot, all because of the color of his skin.

In and of itself, Fruitvale is not suspenseful, but every moment and performance gains gravity because of what we as the audience know is coming. Jordan is very, very good, showing us both the mama's boy with the winning smile and the lion-hearted young man who refuses to back down from a fight. While you could argue the film is a touch too flattering of Grant at times, it doesn't shy away from ugly moments and it doesn't try to paint a nicer picture of his circumstances then it needs to (watch Diaz's reaction when Oscar admits to his girlfriend he didn't get his job back and he still dumped out his last bag of weed). Most of all, Jordan makes Oscar endearing--he's great company for this hour-plus, and when tragic circumstances dictate he exit the picture, his absence is felt...as it no doubt is for his friends and family in real life.

Watching Fruitvale made me ache for those who are treated wrongly and discriminated against. It made me angry, not just at the police officers involved (the officer who shot Grant served 11 months in prison for involuntary manslaughter after claiming his mistook his pistol for his taser in the heat of the moment), but at myself, for judging people and treating people differently for their appearance or their momentary actions--I watched Fruitvale the day after Seattle Seahawks' corner Richard Sherman alienated many with his rowdy, cocky, blustering post-game comments after the NFC Championship game, earning scores of "punk" and "thug" labels from social media users everywhere, myself included. And it made me want to appreciate the people in my life more.

Fruitvale Station (2013)
Written and Directed by Ryan Coogler
Rated R
Length: 85 minutes

HER

Her (2013)

Grade: B+

Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Amy Adams and Rooney Mara, with Scarlett Johansson as the voice of Samantha

Premise: A lonely divorcee falls in love with the female personality of his apartment’s computerized operating system.

Rated R for constant profanity (including intense, graphic sex-related dialogue), sexuality and brief nudity

Two nights ago, Spike Jonze won the Golden Globe for Best Screenplay for this film, and no wonder. Though its basic premise is a truly peculiar one—a man in the not-too-distant future essentially falls in love with the voice of his computer—Her is really a movie that has been cut from the fabric of real life. The main relationship is obviously a nod to modern society’s growing dependence on technology, but, far more than a commentary on voice-activated machines and technological convenience, Jonze’s surprisingly intimate movie is really about how people deal with relationships. Every single character in this movie has layers, and the relationships they have with other characters have layers, too. There’s a divorcee who greets her ex with warmth and gentleness—remembering the good times and sensing the easy, natural rapport—but who bristles immediately upon being criticized even slightly. There’s a drunken single mother who really just wants to have a good time, but, even facing the prospect of a pleasurable evening, fights against putting herself in a position to be hurt again. And there’s a man who, even though he’s desperately lonely and has an imagination full of romantic ideas, can’t help but try and shrug off the idea of a real, committed relationship. Her isn’t a perfect movie—it’s longer than it needs to be, and a lot of the dialogue has been unnecessarily over-sexualized—but, despite its futuristic trappings, it’s a movie almost everyone can relate to, as the words spoken and the feelings invoked are ones everyone can relate to.

Plot

Thanks to a voice-automated earpiece, Theodore Twombly (Joaquin Phoenix) can accomplish almost anything without doing almost anything. With his computer network being scanned for him, he can check his e-mail, hear the day’s weather, scan the day’s news headlines, and even search for a lonely partner for some late-night phone sex. He also doesn’t have to do much at work; a writer for BeautifulHandwrittenLetters.com, he dictates to his computer love letters people call in and ask him to write for them, whether they’re birthday notes, anniversary letters, or post-break-up apologies. He’s good at his work because he has a way of expressing romantic feelings, but his personal life is in shambles. He’s nearing the end of the line in a drawn-out, messy divorce from his childhood sweetheart (Rooney Mara), while trying to council and comfort his flaky close friend Amy (Amy Adams) as she enters a divorce of her own. He spends his evenings alone, goes to bed alone, and wakes up alone. So when he hears of a new type of computerized Operating System that’s so high-tech and real it’s like having someone else around all the time, he jumps at the chance.

After answering a few basic questions about his personality, his OS is downloaded and begins speaking to him as if it’s a real person he just met. Light, perky, and fun, Samantha (as she calls herself, voiced by Scarlett Johansson) is soon the apple of Theodore’s eye. While she doesn’t actually have a body, she can see through the camera on Theodore’s cell phone, she can speak to him 24/7 through his earpiece, she sees everything on his computer, and she can gain knowledge instantaneously by scanning the web in milliseconds. With Samantha in his ear, Theodore now has a friend to talk to at work, at home, at the beach, in the park, everywhere he could want one. Soon, as Amy notes, he’s happy as could be, fulfilled on even more levels after one night in which he and Samantha start talking intimately and things get steamy. That said, he can’t pretend he’s not by himself all the time. He loves Samantha, loves talking to her and hearing from her at all hours, but he’s surrounded by people who have spouses, who have families, who have relationships with people they can see and touch and embrace. And, though he perks up every time he hears from Samantha, he starts wondering if he should cut ties with her. But she’s become his one constant companion; if he lets her go, he’ll be alone again…

What Works?

If that sounds a little weird or hard to imagine—especially the part about “things getting steamy” between Theodore and his computer system—it is, but part of Jonze’s genius is that you almost don’t even think about it. Given flowing, realistic dialogue by Jonze and voiced perfectly by Johansson (who doesn’t actually show her face in the film but deserves a ton of praise), Samantha seems real, as though Theodore is merely chatting with someone on his cell phone the entire movie. Not only is she bubbly and up for anything and good for Theodore’s ego, she’s comforting, she’s consoling, and she’s even challenging, Theodore finds, if he says something she doesn’t like. Samantha’s words and voice are so convincing and engaging that even if you find yourself wondering how exactly a computer is thinking and talking that way, it doesn’t seem especially relevant, and doesn’t effect your enjoyment of the film.

Beyond Samantha, Jonze’s writing is still terrific, and he’s aided enormously by a group of game actors who excel at playing real. In his wild turn in The Master last year, Phoenix proved he’ll do anything, and he does it again here, although, this time, instead of coming across like an amazing actor providing amazing acting fireworks, he’s a regular Joe, but that’s a regular Joe who’s absolutely convincing as a real guy. He’s quiet, he’s self-conscious, he’s lonely, and even when he senses his unconventional relationship may be poisoning other parts of his life, he clings on for dear life because his relationship feels ‘safe’ and ‘normal’. But then, being a complicated person, he can’t meet with his ex-wife without feeling heaps of bitterness, and he can’t make himself respond to a gorgeous, tipsy blind date (a magnetic Olivia Wilde) when she asks him to tell her straight-up he’s not just out for a one-night-stand. Along with Wilde, Mara does a lot with a little material, conveying multiple emotions at once, and the consistently-great Amy Adams predictably steals a handful of scenes as Theodore’s supportive but complicated bestie.

With some nicely-illuminated cityscapes serving as backdrops, Her looks great, but never better than when it’s focused on Phoenix’s face. Almost every audience member will be able to relate to the feelings shown onscreen, whether in the flicks of his eyes, the downturn of his mouth, or panicked or devastated tears. As mentioned, Jonze’s big accomplishment is making a movie about people and relationships people will understand.

What Doesn’t Work?

That’s not to say it’s perfect. The over-reliance on sex-related dialogue and other sexual material gets old fast, whether it’s a foul-mouthed video game character simulating sex or the very vocal expressions of pleasure emanating from both Samantha and Theodore when they “have sex” (an earlier scene of Theodore having phone sex with a lonely stranger named SexyKitten introduces us to the film’s unflinching rawness, though that scene, which takes an outrageous twist, at least manages to toe the line between repellant and hilarious). Her also does feel long, as Theodore and Samantha each move back and forth between wanting the other person and not wanting the other person a few times, when we, as the audience feel sure it ultimately can't work.

Content

F-words abound, and innuendos and sexual references abound even outside of the “sex scenes”—Her is very focused on the physical aspects of a relationship (not that it claims that’s all relationships are about, mind you). There are a few shots of a naked woman, and another scene in which Theodore engages in some heated foreplay with another woman he’s met up with. Basically, this is a thinking couple’s date-night film, and it’s very rated R.

Bottom Line

Thanks to brilliant writing and acting, Her overcomes the inherent weirdness of its main premise to the point that you barely even think about it, as the movie explores very real aspects of relationships and people’s innate desire for closeness with an honesty and intimacy most movies don’t. It’s raw and very R-rated, but you’ll be amazed how real everything is (plus you’ll want to hug Scarlett Johansson, who makes you fall in love with her without even showing her face).

Her (2013)

Written and Directed by Spike Jonze

Rated R

Length: 126 minutes

WAITING FOR OSCAR

WAITING FOR OSCAR

The Golden Globes and the Nomination Anticipation

Nominations for the 86^th Annual Academy Awards will be announced this Thursday—so momentous an occasion that the God of Thunder himself, Chris Hemsworth, has been called upon to do the unveiling on TV—and as I breathlessly anticipate hearing who’s in and who’s out in one of the most competitive years in a while, I can only say…Amy Poehler and Tina Fey were awesome at the Golden Globes last night. I felt a hint of shame when Amy Poehler welcomed all the “women and gay men” tuning in to the broadcast (ouch!), but I laughed loudly at their many jokes, which targeted everyone from Tom Hanks, George Clooney and Jonah Hill, to Martin Scorcese and Captain Phillips newcomer Barkhad Abdi. Then I watched TV and movies’ best and brightest take the stage one after another, whether they were presenters (like the reliably-entertaining Robert Downey Jr.), winners (like Bryan Cranston for Breaking Bad, yeah!) or both (Jennifer Lawrence). While the show’s producers showed early on they were having no monkey business, and uncomfortably cranked up the music relatively early in people’s acceptances speeches, causing embarrassed stammers, abrupt endings, or relative stubbornness (“you can’t stop me from talking about my daughter!”, Amy Adams crowed over the orchestra), they counteracted this discomfort with a few classy touches. Steve Coogan, co-writer and co-star of the Judi Dench-starring drama Philomena, presented the honorary Best Picture clips for the film along with the real Philomena Lee, and Hemsworth (in a possible tune-up for nomination announcement duties) presented the BP clips for his auto-racing film Rush alongside Niki Lauda, the Austrian auto-racing champion played in Rush as a younger man by Supporting Actor Globe nominee Daniel Bruhl.

So it was a fun night, but it teaches us little about the potential shape of the final days of the Oscar race (voting for the nominees ended last Wednesday, so none of last night’s Globe winners will see an uptick in momentum, regrettably). If it did, though…could American Hustle break up the Gravity/12 Years A Slave heavyweight Best Picture bout? Could Amy Adams edge Meryl Streep out of the Best Actress category? Could Leonardo DiCaprio get nominated for Best Actor over screen legend Robert Redford and supposed shoo-in Bruce Dern? Do any Best Supporting Actor nominees other than Jared Leto even need to show up at the ceremony? Fun questions, and just ‘cause those Oscar nominations can’t be announced soon enough, here’s a little look at the major categories in light of the second biggest awards show for movies..

Best Picture

This has got to be the most competitive year since the Academy brought back the up-to-10-movies limit in 2009. Some of the years since, this has been a joke, what with cliché (The Blind Side) and critically-panned (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) movies finding their way into the race for the big prize. This year, I’m still feeling a little out of the loop, as I still haven’t even really had the chance to see limited-release flicks like Nebraska, Inside Llewyn Davis, August: Osage County or Philomena.

That said, I’ve seen the three powerhouse nominees, all of which are now sure things: 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, and Gravity. The consensus has been that Gravity and Slave will duke it out in a classic spectacle vs. substance high-stakes derby, but after winning three Golden Globes last night—including Best Picture: Musical or Comedy—thrilling critics and making bank at the box office, American Hustle is gaining a lot of steam. I can’t quite picture it beating an unforgettable saga like Slave or a never-before-seen jaw-dropper like Gravity, but, then, I thought Hustle was decidedly EH…I just didn’t quite get it (of all the major awards it’ll contend for, the only one I’d be perfectly content with seeing it win would be Best Actress for Amy Adams, if Adams makes it).

So, those three are in. Then, another film I saw (though, admittedly, half-slept through), the real-life-based Captain Phillips, has been on every big list of Best Picture nominees, as has Dallas Buyers Club (well, except for the Globes). Lee Daniels’ the Butler was shut out at the Globes, but it was a box-office hit full of important, beloved celebrities (Forest Whitaker, Oprah Winfrey, Jane Fonda, Robin Williams) and is a chronicle of recent American history with many well-known historical figures, so it’s very much in the running. Summer’s Oscar Grant chronicle Fruitvale Station got terrific reviews, but will voters remember that far back (mid-summer) when they’ve been dazzled in recent months by Academy faves Alexander Payne (Nebraska) and the Coen brothers (Llewyn Davis), the Ensemble Cast to End All Ensemble Casts (Osage County) and Dame Judi (Philomena)? I’m betting not. And don’t forget about the (admittedly rather controversial) Martin Scorcese behemoth, The Wolf of Wall Street, which just ransacked theaters in its pursuit of Oscar glory.

So, I expect the 10 to be: Gravity, 12 Years A Slave, American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Lee Daniels’ The Butler, Nebraska, Inside Llewyn Davis and The Wolf of Wall Street

Okay, so that’s 9, but the last few years, they’ve stopped at nine. If they add a 10^th, expect it to be one of the well-reviewed trio of Fruitvale, Philomena and Spike Jonze’s Her

Best Director

Best Director tends to be pretty easy, and it is this year. Take the guys who made Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron), 12 Years (Steve McQueen), Hustle (David O. Russell), and Phillips (Paul Greengrass), and then see who the Academy likes more between the oft-nominated Scorcese and Payne.

That seems like a pretty safe bet. Oh, there have been a few out-of-nowhere picks in the past (Fernando Meirelles in 2003 for the foreign film City of God, for example), but this seems unlikely in a year full of Big movies with Big vision. Of the aforementioned group, only British director Steve McQueen is brand new to the Oscars. Cuaron received Best Screenplay and Editing nods for 2006’s Children of Men. O. Russell has been nominated in this category twice, including just last year for Silver Linings Playbook. Greengrass snared a nomination back in 2006 for the unforgettable United 93. And for that matter, Payne’s been nominated twice (for The Descendants and Sideways) and Scorcese won once (for ‘06’s The Departed) and, if you believe general consensus, has been robbed a bunch of other times.

Those first four are pretty much set in stone (Cuaron and McQueen are absolute locks—expect the winner to be one of the two). And it’s a close call between a pair of frequently-nominated veterans, but, given the controversy Wall Street has stirred up, I’m going with Alexander Payne over Marty as the fifth nominee.

Best Actor

Last year was pretty easy: there were exactly six serious nominees for Best Actor in a Leading Role. Five were nominated, and John Hawkes (for The Sessions) got left out in the cold. Having been able to see the films from which all five actual nominees came, I have to say that was one of those years where, really, anybody could have won…except nobody beats Daniel Day-Lewis in acting.

This year isn’t like last year. This year, depending on the lists you’re looking at or the critics’ groups you’re following, there are somewhere close to a dozen “serious” contenders.

Every list of potential Best Actor nominees made up by any critics’ group, award show, voting body, or anybody anywhere, has had Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years) on it. Unless I missed something, same with Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club. Captain Phillips’ Tom Hanks—looking for his first Oscar nomination in 13 years—has been right behind them. So that’s three. Depending on the lists you’ve been looking at, you’ve probably also seen these names included on Best Actor lists in the last four months: Leonardo DiCaprio (Wolf of Wall Street), Bruce Dern (Nebraska), Robert Redford (All is Lost), Christian Bale (American Hustle), Joaquin Phoenix (Her), Forest Whitakker (Lee Daniels’ The Butler), Michael B. Jordan (Fruitvale Station) and Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis). That’s one Hollywood legend (Redford), two previous Oscar winners (Bale and Whitakker), two guys who Will Win, It’s Only A Matter of Time (DiCaprio and Phoenix), and three guys the Academy Really Wants to Nominate (Dern, Jordan and Isaac).

Two months ago, Dern and Redford had this category sewn up. Dern has been on nearly as many lists as the three guys I mentioned as front-runners, and Redford once had everyone proclaiming it was finally His Year. Alas, a lack of a serious Oscar campaign—and the fact that absolutely nobody saw All is Lost—might have the Sundance Kid on the outside looking in. Plus, despite the various criticisms of The Wolf of Wall Street, three-time-nominee DiCaprio has gotten spectacular reviews for carrying a three-hour epic on his slender but hardworking back; and, if last night’s Golden Globes could affect the nominations, DiCaprio would be in, thanks to a classy acceptance speech (which included by-name nods to all his fellow nominees, plus a very nice compliment to Bruce Dern) after his Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy win. That speech, which included copious complimenting of Martin Scorcese and a tongue-in-cheek jab at the Musical or Comedy category itself (“my fellow comedians”) made me think DiCaprio might be one of the most likeable guys in Hollywood in addition to being one of the most committed and hard-working.

Anyway, despite the abundance of worthy names, I’m saying it’s: Ejiofor, Globe-winner McConaughey, Hanks, Dern, and either DiCaprio or Redford. Put a gun to my head over the tie, and I’ll say DiCaprio.

Best Actress

Last year’s Best Actress race was this year’s Best Actor race: there were two givens (Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain) and a half-dozen worthy contenders. This year’s Best Actress race is last year’s Best Actor race: there are six people in the running, four locks and a pair duking it out over the final spot. The locks are Cate Blanchett (who’s already won every award in sight for Blue Jasmine), Sandra Bullock (the terrific star of Gravity), Judi Dench (who’s never won in this category despite four previous nominations), and Emma Thompson (so good in Saving Mr. Banks). Bullock and Thompson have won Best Actress before, Blanchett and Dench have each taken home the gold for the Supporting category, so this is a decorated group indeed.

And then there’s Meryl Streep. The seventeen-time nominee (with three Oscars on her mantel) provided another transformative effort as a rude and crude matriarch in August: Osage County, though I have actually read some mixed reviews (of both the film and Streep’s performance). Streep has been penned in as the likely fifth nominee, and with her track record, who’s to argue? But if the Academy decides Streep has maybe been nominated enough, and maybe Osage County doesn’t offer one of her best performances, they’ll turn to:

Amy Adams. She’s an Oscar darling, having been nominated four previous times (though always in the Supporting category), and she’s the superb leading lady of the well-reviewed, popular American Hustle. She just snagged the Golden Globe for Actress in a Musical or Comedy (over Streep), and, with her acceptance speech, reminded us what a character she is: a sweetie-pie gal pal with a core of steel underneath (plus, in my opinion, she’s one of the most talented actresses working today). Then again, does anyone really want to see Amy Adams nominated again only to go home empty-handed? Five times a bridesmaid, and never a bride, has to hurt, especially when you consider that all of the four likely other nominees won in their first or second time up.

Anyway, there are four locks, and I’m picking Amy Adams to give Streep the slip. Streep—who has to know she has no chance of winning anyway—will be fine.

 Best Supporting Actor

I have to be quicker about this, so for Supporting Actor, I’ll just say that Globe winner Jared Leto all but has this race sewn up for his role as a transvestite in Dallas Buyers Club. If this was actually competitive, you could say Michael Fassbender is nipping at his heels as the deranged slave owner in 12 Years A Slave. And Bradley Cooper just bellowed and blustered and stormed his way into the race as a wild-man FBI agent in American Hustle. The other two nominees will come from a pool of deserving candidates, including comic relief Jonah Hill (Wolf of Wall Street), impressive acting newcomer Barkhadi Abdi from Captain Phillips, stalwart character actor Daniel Bruhl (Rush), or an honorary nod for the late James Gandolfini from Enough Said. For a while, Tom Hanks looked to potentially make this a two-nomination year, but, unfortunately, his warm portrayal of Walt Disney in Saving Mr. Banks seems unlikely to withstand that film's mixed reviews and sputtering box office performance, so he’ll have to hope for recognition in the Best Actor category.

Since this isn’t a competitive race—barring what would be a huge upset—it doesn’t really matter to me who’s nominated, though I’m really rooting for Bruhl (so good as the laconic, socially-awkward Niki Lauda) and I would be disgusted if Fassbender misses out (two years ago, Fassbender was a sure thing for his headlining role in Shame until…he wasn’t…).

Best Supporting Actress

Excepting one seriously notable Golden Globes snub, it looks like this category could be a truly juicy one, featuring a three-way battle between arguably the most popular and influential woman of the last 30 years, the current we-can’t-get-enough It Girl, and perhaps the most reliably successful Hollywood leading lady of all time. Yes, Globe winner Jennifer Lawrence (Hustle) is packing heat and generating whispers of a second consecutive Oscar after her Best Actress win last year, while Julia Roberts (August: Osage County) looks to get her first nomination since she won Best Actress in 2000 for Erin Brockovich, and, well, hopefully Oprah Winfrey’s scene-stealing role in Lee Daniels’ The Butler will catch on with the Academy, since it missed out with the Globes’ Hollywood Foreign Press Association. Seriously, let’s hope Oprah gets nominated, because it’s possible only someone with her acclaim and appeal could stop J-Law’s unstoppable roll through the box office and the entertainment world as we know it.

Other than these big three, 12 Years’ Lupita Nyong’o has been a favorite all year and is a cert to be in Oscar’s final five. Nebraska’s June Squibb has been on Nyong’o’s slender heels thanks to great reviews and a Globe nod. So that would be five. But if the roof falls in and Oscar follows the HFPA and doesn’t nominate Oprah, the door would open for people like Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine), Margo Martindale (Osage County) or Scarlett Johanssen for…aw, I’m just kidding, ScarJo’s not gonna get nominated for just her voice (in Her)!

Let’s hope Oprah makes it, huh? Because Oprah, Julia, J-Law, Lupita, and June makes for a wonderfully-diverse group.

In Conclusion:

So yeah. Even though three of the acting races already appear decided, I can’t wait to see the nominees (for everything, but especially acting). I’ll be sorely disappointed if a few certain people are left out of the running, and I’m sure there will be a few “What the?” surprises. But once ol’ Thor announces them, we have a whole month-and-a-half to analyze them, as the show, pushed back by the presence of the Winter Olympics, isn’t until March 2.