WAITING FOR OSCAR
The Golden Globes and the Nomination Anticipation
Nominations for the 86th Annual Academy Awards will be announced this Thursday—so momentous an occasion that the God of Thunder himself, Chris Hemsworth, has been called upon to do the unveiling on TV—and as I breathlessly anticipate hearing who’s in and who’s out in one of the most competitive years in a while, I can only say…Amy Poehler and Tina Fey were awesome at the Golden Globes last night. I felt a hint of shame when Amy Poehler welcomed all the “women and gay men” tuning in to the broadcast (ouch!), but I laughed loudly at their many jokes, which targeted everyone from Tom Hanks, George Clooney and Jonah Hill, to Martin Scorcese and Captain Phillips newcomer Barkhad Abdi. Then I watched TV and movies’ best and brightest take the stage one after another, whether they were presenters (like the reliably-entertaining Robert Downey Jr.), winners (like Bryan Cranston for Breaking Bad, yeah!) or both (Jennifer Lawrence). While the show’s producers showed early on they were having no monkey business, and uncomfortably cranked up the music relatively early in people’s acceptances speeches, causing embarrassed stammers, abrupt endings, or relative stubbornness (“you can’t stop me from talking about my daughter!”, Amy Adams crowed over the orchestra), they counteracted this discomfort with a few classy touches. Steve Coogan, co-writer and co-star of the Judi Dench-starring drama Philomena, presented the honorary Best Picture clips for the film along with the real Philomena Lee, and Hemsworth (in a possible tune-up for nomination announcement duties) presented the BP clips for his auto-racing film Rush alongside Niki Lauda, the Austrian auto-racing champion played in Rush as a younger man by Supporting Actor Globe nominee Daniel Bruhl.
So it was a fun night, but it teaches us little about the potential shape of the final days of the Oscar race (voting for the nominees ended last Wednesday, so none of last night’s Globe winners will see an uptick in momentum, regrettably). If it did, though…could American Hustle break up the Gravity/12 Years A Slave heavyweight Best Picture bout? Could Amy Adams edge Meryl Streep out of the Best Actress category? Could Leonardo DiCaprio get nominated for Best Actor over screen legend Robert Redford and supposed shoo-in Bruce Dern? Do any Best Supporting Actor nominees other than Jared Leto even need to show up at the ceremony? Fun questions, and just ‘cause those Oscar nominations can’t be announced soon enough, here’s a little look at the major categories in light of the second biggest awards show for movies..
Best Picture
This has got to be the most competitive year since the Academy brought back the up-to-10-movies limit in 2009. Some of the years since, this has been a joke, what with cliché (The Blind Side) and critically-panned (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) movies finding their way into the race for the big prize. This year, I’m still feeling a little out of the loop, as I still haven’t even really had the chance to see limited-release flicks like Nebraska , Inside Llewyn Davis, August: Osage County
That said, I’ve seen the three powerhouse nominees, all of which are now sure things: 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, and Gravity. The consensus has been that Gravity and Slave will duke it out in a classic spectacle vs. substance high-stakes derby, but after winning three Golden Globes last night—including Best Picture: Musical or Comedy—thrilling critics and making bank at the box office, American Hustle is gaining a lot of steam. I can’t quite picture it beating an unforgettable saga like Slave or a never-before-seen jaw-dropper like Gravity, but, then, I thought Hustle was decidedly EH…I just didn’t quite get it (of all the major awards it’ll contend for, the only one I’d be perfectly content with seeing it win would be Best Actress for Amy Adams, if Adams makes it).
So, those three are in. Then, another film I saw (though, admittedly, half-slept through), the real-life-based Captain Phillips, has been on every big list of Best Picture nominees, as has Dallas Buyers Club (well, except for the Globes). Lee Daniels’ the Butler was shut out at the Globes, but it was a box-office hit full of important, beloved celebrities (Forest Whitaker, Oprah Winfrey, Jane Fonda, Robin Williams) and is a chronicle of recent American history with many well-known historical figures, so it’s very much in the running. Summer’s Oscar Grant chronicle Fruitvale Station got terrific reviews, but will voters remember that far back (mid-summer) when they’ve been dazzled in recent months by Academy faves Alexander Payne (Nebraska) and the Coen brothers (Llewyn Davis), the Ensemble Cast to End All Ensemble Casts (Osage County) and Dame Judi (Philomena)? I’m betting not. And don’t forget about the (admittedly rather controversial) Martin Scorcese behemoth, The Wolf of Wall Street, which just ransacked theaters in its pursuit of Oscar glory.
So, I expect the 10 to be: Gravity, 12 Years A Slave, American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Lee Daniels’ The Butler , Nebraska
Okay, so that’s 9, but the last few years, they’ve stopped at nine. If they add a 10th, expect it to be one of the well-reviewed trio of Fruitvale, Philomena and Spike Jonze’s Her
Best Director
Best Director tends to be pretty easy, and it is this year. Take the guys who made Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron), 12 Years (Steve McQueen), Hustle (David O. Russell), and Phillips (Paul Greengrass), and then see who the Academy likes more between the oft-nominated Scorcese and Payne.
That seems like a pretty safe bet. Oh, there have been a few out-of-nowhere picks in the past (Fernando Meirelles in 2003 for the foreign film City of God
Those first four are pretty much set in stone (Cuaron and McQueen are absolute locks—expect the winner to be one of the two). And it’s a close call between a pair of frequently-nominated veterans, but, given the controversy Wall Street has stirred up, I’m going with Alexander Payne over Marty as the fifth nominee.
Best Actor
Last year was pretty easy: there were exactly six serious nominees for Best Actor in a Leading Role. Five were nominated, and John Hawkes (for The Sessions) got left out in the cold. Having been able to see the films from which all five actual nominees came, I have to say that was one of those years where, really, anybody could have won…except nobody beats Daniel Day-Lewis in acting.
This year isn’t like last year. This year, depending on the lists you’re looking at or the critics’ groups you’re following, there are somewhere close to a dozen “serious” contenders.
Every list of potential Best Actor nominees made up by any critics’ group, award show, voting body, or anybody anywhere, has had Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years) on it. Unless I missed something, same with Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Phoenix ), and three guys the Academy Really Wants to Nominate (Dern , Jordan
Two months ago, Dern and Redford had this category sewn up. Dern has been on nearly as many lists as the three guys I mentioned as front-runners, and Redford once had everyone proclaiming it was finally His Year. Alas, a lack of a serious Oscar campaign—and the fact that absolutely nobody saw All is Lost—might have the Sundance Kid on the outside looking in. Plus, despite the various criticisms of The Wolf of Wall Street, three-time-nominee DiCaprio has gotten spectacular reviews for carrying a three-hour epic on his slender but hardworking back; and, if last night’s Golden Globes could affect the nominations, DiCaprio would be in, thanks to a classy acceptance speech (which included by-name nods to all his fellow nominees, plus a very nice compliment to Bruce Dern) after his Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy win. That speech, which included copious complimenting of Martin Scorcese and a tongue-in-cheek jab at the Musical or Comedy category itself (“my fellow comedians”) made me think DiCaprio might be one of the most likeable guys in Hollywood
Anyway, despite the abundance of worthy names, I’m saying it’s: Ejiofor, Globe-winner McConaughey, Hanks, Dern, and either DiCaprio or Redford . Put a gun to my head over the tie, and I’ll say DiCaprio.
Best Actress
Last year’s Best Actress race was this year’s Best Actor race: there were two givens (Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain) and a half-dozen worthy contenders. This year’s Best Actress race is last year’s Best Actor race: there are six people in the running, four locks and a pair duking it out over the final spot. The locks are Cate Blanchett (who’s already won every award in sight for Blue Jasmine), Sandra Bullock (the terrific star of Gravity), Judi Dench (who’s never won in this category despite four previous nominations), and Emma Thompson (so good in Saving Mr. Banks). Bullock and Thompson have won Best Actress before, Blanchett and Dench have each taken home the gold for the Supporting category, so this is a decorated group indeed.
And then there’s Meryl Streep. The seventeen-time nominee (with three Oscars on her mantel) provided another transformative effort as a rude and crude matriarch in August: Osage County Osage County
Amy Adams. She’s an Oscar darling, having been nominated four previous times (though always in the Supporting category), and she’s the superb leading lady of the well-reviewed, popular American Hustle. She just snagged the Golden Globe for Actress in a Musical or Comedy (over Streep), and, with her acceptance speech, reminded us what a character she is: a sweetie-pie gal pal with a core of steel underneath (plus, in my opinion, she’s one of the most talented actresses working today). Then again, does anyone really want to see Amy Adams nominated again only to go home empty-handed? Five times a bridesmaid, and never a bride, has to hurt, especially when you consider that all of the four likely other nominees won in their first or second time up.
Anyway, there are four locks, and I’m picking Amy Adams to give Streep the slip. Streep—who has to know she has no chance of winning anyway—will be fine.
Best Supporting Actor
I have to be quicker about this, so for Supporting Actor, I’ll just say that Globe winner Jared Leto all but has this race sewn up for his role as a transvestite in Dallas
Since this isn’t a competitive race—barring what would be a huge upset—it doesn’t really matter to me who’s nominated, though I’m really rooting for Bruhl (so good as the laconic, socially-awkward Niki Lauda) and I would be disgusted if Fassbender misses out (two years ago, Fassbender was a sure thing for his headlining role in Shame until…he wasn’t…).
Best Supporting Actress
Excepting one seriously notable Golden Globes snub, it looks like this category could be a truly juicy one, featuring a three-way battle between arguably the most popular and influential woman of the last 30 years, the current we-can’t-get-enough It Girl, and perhaps the most reliably successful Hollywood leading lady of all time. Yes, Globe winner Jennifer Lawrence (Hustle) is packing heat and generating whispers of a second consecutive Oscar after her Best Actress win last year, while Julia Roberts (August: Osage County) looks to get her first nomination since she won Best Actress in 2000 for Erin Brockovich, and, well, hopefully Oprah Winfrey’s scene-stealing role in Lee Daniels’ The Butler will catch on with the Academy, since it missed out with the Globes’ Hollywood Foreign Press Association. Seriously, let’s hope Oprah gets nominated, because it’s possible only someone with her acclaim and appeal could stop J-Law’s unstoppable roll through the box office and the entertainment world as we know it.
Other than these big three, 12 Years’ Lupita Nyong’o has been a favorite all year and is a cert to be in Oscar’s final five. Nebraska
Let’s hope Oprah makes it, huh? Because Oprah, Julia, J-Law, Lupita, and June makes for a wonderfully-diverse group.
So yeah. Even though three of the acting races already appear decided, I can’t wait to see the nominees (for everything, but especially acting). I’ll be sorely disappointed if a few certain people are left out of the running, and I’m sure there will be a few “What the?” surprises. But once ol’ Thor announces them, we have a whole month-and-a-half to analyze them, as the show, pushed back by the presence of the Winter Olympics, isn’t until March 2.
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