Will, Should, Could, I Wish It Would (Win)
The Major Categories At the Oscars
BEST PICTURE
American Sniper*
Birdman*
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest
Hotel*
The Imitation Game
The Theory of
Everything
Whiplash*
*-a movie I haven’t
seen as of this writing
Notable Snubs: Gone Girl, Foxcatcher, Into The Woods,
Interstellar, Unbroken
Reaction: If I
were a member of the Academy, I would start praying—regularly and fervently,
today—that American Sniper, which
opens wide tomorrow, January 16, blows the doors off the box office, builds
great word-of-mouth, and becomes a must-see film for the average moviegoer.
That’s the only way this group will have an actual hit in their midst—a movie
the average American has heard of, and, hopefully, gone to see. As I already
stated in my initial reaction blog, Gone
Girl’s omission is a travesty, partly because it was a great film that
deserved to be nominated, and part because it’s a movie that set the world on
fire and that everyone was talking about. The Academy’s snub of David
Fincher’s thriller relegates this list almost entirely to the types of movies
the average person hasn’t even heard of. Not that they’re bad—the three I’ve
seen at this time, Boyhood, The Imitation
Game and The Theory of Everything, were
all very good-bordering-on-great films—but the Oscars have been slipping in
popularity for years, and it doesn’t help when they load the most important
category up with movies most people haven’t seen and don’t care about. To whit,
this group’s highest current grosser is The
Grand Budapest Hotel, which rang up a decent $59 million haul, but it was
released last March. And that’s $18 million more than Selma , which is in second place. Meanwhile, Whiplash, unveiled almost entirely in limited release,
has grossed but $6 million (yes, I know that sounds like a lot of money to
you and me, but in the movie world, it’s not). Of the snubbed films I listed,
only Foxcatcher failed to break
the $100 million mark domestically. Academy, if you want people to watch your
show and care about it, nominate some movies most people have seen; you have
two Best Picture slots left under the new rules, for cryin’ out loud!
Anyway, I’ve heard good things about all these movies and,
as I mentioned, the three I’ve seen were very, very good. But this bunch won’t
do much to endear an entertainment-seeking public to the tastes of the stuffy,
old-fashioned Academy.
The Race: If American Sniper can become a runaway
success at the box office and really get people talking, it could make an impact on the outcome. As
it is, the clear frontrunner is the coming-of-age drama Boyhood (which, you may have heard, was filmed over the course of
12 years) and its closest competitor is the self-aware black comedy Birdman.
Will Win: Boyhood
Should Win: I have no problem with Boyhood taking the prize,
but if American Sniper knocks my
socks off, I may feel differently.
Dark Horse: Birdman/American Sniper
BEST DIRECTOR
Wes Anderson-The Grand
Budapest Hotel*
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu-Birdman*
Richard Linklater-Boyhood
Bennett Miller-Foxcatcher
Morten Tyldum-The
Imitation Game
Notable Snubs: Ava
DuVernay (Selma ),
David Fincher (Gone Girl), Clint Eastwood (American Sniper), Damian Chazelle
(Whiplash), Christopher Nolan (Interstellar), James Marsh (The Theory of
Everything), Angelina Jolie (Unbroken)
Reaction: Other
than being disappointed by Fincher’s exclusion for his fine work on my favorite
movie of the year, I don’t care too much about this category either way. Nolan
probably deserved a nod for making such a huge film, I’m surprised Eastwood
didn’t ride in on Sniper’s coattails
when it was obviously a huge hit with the Academy, and I’m a little sorry for
DuVernay and Jolie, who made hugely-important films of large scope and didn’t
get nominated. But this is still a strong group without being an All-Star team of
guys who get nominated for Best Director every year—the Danish Tyldum is the only one without a
previous nomination for directing, writing, or producing.
The Race: No
question, really. There’s Richard Linklater, 54, and everybody else. The last
two years, this award has gone to the director who underwent the most
technically-challenging endeavor (Ang Lee for Life of Pi in 2012, Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity in 2013), and Linklater shot Boyhood in 39 days from 2002 to 2013. He also wrote it, gave his
daughter Lorelei a key part, and kept his major actors all 12 years without
once being accused of being a tyrant or a slave driver. He’s basically got it.
Will Win: Linklater,
unless the Academy wants to go for the old Reward-one-movie-with-Best-Director,
one-for-Best-Picture route that’s been in vogue lately, but I can’t picture
that happening given what Linklater accomplished.
Should Win: Linklater
Dark Horse: Wes
Anderson. Grand Budapest Hotel was
obviously huge with the Academy, getting all these nods when it came out almost
a year ago.
BEST ACTOR
Steve Carell-Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper-American
Sniper*
Benedict Cumberbatch-The
Imitation Game
Michael Keaton-Birdman*
Eddie Redmayne-The
Theory of Everything
Notable Snubs: Jake
Gyllenhaal-Nightcrawler, David Oyelowo-Selma
Reaction: If
there ever was a category to expand, this is the one, because Best Actor always
seems to have 6-8 really legitimate nominees who get some of the accolades from
the guilds and other award shows, but, of course, you can’t nominate 6-8 people
for an Oscar. Someone gets left out in the cold. In 2012, it was John Hawkes of
The Sessions. Last year it was Tom
Hanks from Captain Phillips and
one-time front-runner Robert Redford from All
is Lost. I believe I’ve stated how I feel about Gyllenhaal’s snub; I’m sure
there are many who feel similarly about Oyelowo. I also think there’s a bit of
category fraud here—while Carell has basically been booked for this category
for over a year (Foxcatcher was
originally supposed to come out in late 2013), after seeing the movie, I think
he could legitimately have been nominated in the Supporting category without
anyone getting upset. For my money, Channing Tatum was the lead in Foxcatcher. Anyway, the Academy loves
older guys who’ve been around but just never had the Right Role before
(Keaton), Cumberbatch was terrific, Cooper’s a new Academy favorite at the helm of
a film they obviously loved, and Redmayne was so good he didn’t appear to be acting, even while playing a man who
can’t speak and can barely move (reminiscent of past Best Actor winners who convincingly
channeled physically disabled men, such as Colin Firth in The King’s Speech and Daniel Day-Lewis in My Left Foot). .
The Race: Well,
Gyllenhaal and Oyelowo’s omissions have made this a tad simpler. I’m gonna say
Golden Globe winners Keaton and Redmayne are the front-runners, with Cooper
waiting and hoping American Sniper does
so well at the box office the Academy feels compelled to give it something—like
this, for instance.
Will Win: The
toughest call of all the acting races (per usual in years when Daniel Day-Lewis
isn’t nominated). It’s Keaton or Redmayne.
Should Win: Redmayne
or Cooper (maybe?)
Dark Horse: Cooper
BEST ACTRESS
Marion Cotillard-Two
Days, One Night*
Felicity Jones-The Theory
of Everything
Julianne Moore-Still Alice
Rosamund Pike-Gone
Girl
Reese Witherspoon-Wild
Notable Snubs: Jennifer
Aniston-Cake, Amy Adams-Big Eyes
Reaction: It’s
kinda nice. I harbor no dislike for Adams or Aniston (and I didn’t see either
of their movies, so I can’t really comment), but the Academy went another way
and slipped in 2007’s winner Cotillard, a perpetually great actress who was
supposedly great in a movie I’ve only heard of once before today. Otherwise, this is the
Golden Globes’ drama category (sans Aniston), and I’m happy to say I’ve seen
three of the movies (I think I saw only one of the Best Actress films last
year). None of the three I saw blew me
away, per se (not even Pike as the titular psycho in Gone Girl), but this is a reasonably strong group in what can
sometimes be a joke of a category (see 2012).
The Race: We all
know it’s Moore ’s
to lose. The 54-year-old Moore, four times a bridesmaid previously (including
being nominated in the Lead and
Supporting categories in 2002), has so far snatched up every prize and all the
accolades, so there’s no reason to think differently. She’s an Academy fave
who’s never won, and she’s the front-runner. Easy enough.
Will Win: Moore
Should Win: Felicity
Jones
Dark Horse: Reese
Witherspoon
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert Duvall-The
Judge
Ethan Hawke-Boyhood
Edward Norton-Birdman*
Mark Ruffalo-Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons-Whiplash*
Notable Snubs: Tom
Wilkinson (Selma ),
Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice), Miyavi (Unbroken)
Reaction: This is
the same group from the Golden Globes, for a simple reason—it seems to be a
good group. Simmons is the clear favorite, with the rest of the guys practicing
their “it’s an honor just to be nominated” speeches, but the three whose movies
I saw were excellent. It’s nice to see Duvall, at 84, the oldest male acting
nominee in Academy history, nominated for his blistering performance in The Judge, a movie that would have been
thoroughly mediocre without him (fyi, it’s his 7th nod overall, but first
since 1999). Hawke brought desperately-needed energy and charisma to Boyhood, Ruffalo almost stole the show
in Foxcatcher, and Norton, repping
his first nod since 1998, is always reliably intense.
The Race: Like I
said, there’s Simmons, and there’s everybody else. A win by any of the others
would pretty much be a monumental upset at this point. Of the ones I saw, only
Duvall gave the kind of performance that looks like a turn worthy of winning an
Oscar (even if it was a clichéd part in a clichéd movie), but I have a feeling
Norton would deserve it if he could spring the upset.
Will Win: Simmons
Should Win: I’m
sure Simmons is worthy. And I thought Duvall was excellent.
Dark Horse: Norton
(or Duvall)
BEST SUPPORTING
ACTRESS
Patricia Arquette-Boyhood
Laura Dern-Wild
Keira Knightley-The
Imitation Game
Emma Stone-Birdman*
Meryl Streep-Into The
Woods
Notable Snubs: Jessica
Chastain-A Most Violent Year, Sienna Miller-American Sniper
Reaction: I
actually dropped an expletive when Laura Dern’s name was announced—not because
I was irritated, but because I was very pleased with the imagination it took to
slip her in over Chastain, an Academy favorite who seemed set in stone. I’m pleased with
the outside-the-box thinking, though, having seen Wild, I can tell you it was a tiny part entirely in flashback (then
again, Dern had the biggest moment that hit me in the feels during that flick,
and it wasn’t even a big over-the-top moment). Then again, nominating Dern
isn’t stooping to the level of nominating Jackie-I-did-nothing-in-Silver-Linings-Playbook-but-react-to-the-other-better-actors-around-me-but-I’m-in-Silver-Linings-Playbook-Weaver (2012).
The other four have been locks forever. I’m tempted to say Streep could just
show up and get nominated (this is the 66-year-old actress’ 19th nomination), but she’s always really, Really
good, so there’s no arguing her credibility. Knightley had a classic kind of
supportive-woman-with-a-little-fire role, and Stone’s been an A-lister for
years now. But Arquette’s running the table.
The Race: Patricia
Arquette has won everything and she was very good in Boyhood without being over-the-top. And the most likely actress to
usurp her (Streep) has already won three Oscars and only one person has ever
won four (Katherine Hepburn) and I’m not sure the Academy’s ready to make that
kind of history, and not at a time when it would take an award away from Boyhood.
Will Win, Should Win:
Arquette
Dark Horse: Not
sure it matters, but I’ll say Streep.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
American Sniper
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
The Theory of
Everything
Whiplash
Obviously, only Vice isn’t
a Best Picture nominee, and that film got mixed reviews, so look for this to be
a consolation prize for a Best Picture loser. But which one? Well, Theory’s
likely to get shut out unless Redmayne wins Best Actor, Whiplash already has Simmons in the driver’s seat, so it’ll be
early-season front-runner Imitation Game or
late-breaking Academy darling Sniper.
Again, if Sniper does
gangbusters business in the next month-plus, look for it to grab this one
unless it wins something bigger.
Will Win: I’m
gonna say Sniper
Should Win: Doesn’t
matter
Dark Horse: The Imitation Game or Whiplash
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest
Hotel
Nightcrawler
This is a great category where legitimately great movies
that just aren’t important or fancy or big enough to win Best Picture usually get
their deserving dues (like Her last
year, and Pulp Fiction, Eternal Sunshine
of the Spotless Mind and Juno in
years past). Birdman snapped up this
prize at the Golden Globes, but it’s got a shot at Keaton winning Best Actor, which may be its only major win if it gets it,
and Boyhood’s got Arquette and
Linklater lined up to win. Foxcatcher will
likely get shut out, and this is Nightcrawler’s
only major nomination. So look to Mr. Anderson.
Will Win: Birdman or The Grand Budapest Hotel (this will probably be a consolation prize--his movies are so quirky and offbeat, Anderson will probably live in this category forever, rather like a less-profane Quentin Tarantino)
Should Win: Nightcrawler. Dan Gilroy’s film about
blew my mind, with the slight exception of an end I didn’t totally agree with.
Dark Horse: Birdman
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Big Hero 6
Boxtrolls*
How to Train Your
Dragon 2
The Song of the Sea*
The Tale of Princess
Kaguya*
You might have heard—The
Lego Movie didn’t get nominated, even if its rather obnoxiously-infectious
anthem (“Everything is Awesome”) made the Original Song category. That, plus Dragon’s win over Lego at the Globes, blows this thing wide open. Smaller stuff has
won before. Wallace & Gromit and Rango have won, and, way back in ’02,
Hayao Miyizaki’s Spirited Away won
this puppy over the more successful likes of Lilo & Stitch and the first Ice
Age. But neither of those had the gorgeous animation, emotional maturity,
or box-office clout of Dragon or Big Hero 6. I loved the first How to Train Your Dragon, but it sadly didn’t
stand a chance against Toy Story 3 in
2010. I thought the sequel was good,
but Big Hero 6 was better, not to
mention the most gorgeously-animated movie I’d ever seen. I’d give it to Hero (or, if you’ve seen the movie,
Hiro).
So yeah. That about does it. Any thoughts?
And, of course, there’s always the possibility that I see Birdman, American Sniper, Grand Budapest
Hotel, Whiplash et all and
completely change my mind here. I suppose. But don’t hold your breath.
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